The Current Global Risk Register

eleanorcrowther
Dec 4, 2025
3 min read

This article was written by Eric Loewe, Vice President and Chief Analyst at Polecat.

Signals moving up, staying high, or easing, based on Polecat’s Daily Risk Briefing

I’ve been looking back over November’s briefings to get a sense of what’s moving for multinational enterprises, and what we’re hearing (what our AI is consistently signaling) is worth watching.

A few risk signals came through consistently enough to feel like priorities:

Risks moving up (fastest climbers)

Trade-policy volatility is hardening into a structural supply-chain risk

Tariffs, export controls, port fees, and retaliation cycles keep reappearing across regions. Even when there’s a pause, the assumption of stable rules looks less workable for global operating models. Our current read is that this will persist into 2026.

The above graph shows the number of events of themes related to "Trade Policies," generated in our AI platform, PolecatX. The color indicates whether the sentiment is positive (blue) or concerning (orange).

There has been a clear rise in protectionist measures, led by U.S. tariffs and controls. Polecat’s data demonstrates a link between ‘protectionism trends’ and the ‘hardening of retaliation cycles’.

Cyber risk is expanding from IT into operational disruption

The pattern isn’t just data theft; its interference designed to interrupt logistics, industrial systems, and vendor ecosystems. Even just this week there were reports of hackers behind cargo heists, AI chatbots aiding cybercriminals (more on AI in a moment) and some insurers my be pulling back from the cyber market.

AI is a dual exposure: upside dependency + downside volatility

Heavy CapEx wagers, uneven ROI, workforce displacement, and tightening governance (even insurance conditions) are converging into something risk teams should quantify, not just observe.

Critical minerals / rare earth concentration risk is rising

Strategic inputs are becoming leverage points for states and hidden single-points-of-failure for firms, with real implications for cost volatility and continuity in tech, manufacturing, and energy-transition supply chains. Just this week, we’ve seen US firms starting to outpace Europe in securing rare earths, the UK hesitating to back domestic producers, and Chinese suppliers avoiding export restrictions.

Our modern economy is built on components that are becoming increasingly political.

Basically: any company that needs a magnet or a processor is exposed to geopolitical risk in a way they cannot ignore. Which is almost every company.

Risks staying high (structural)

Physical environmental stressors remain a live enterprise risk

Whatever your views on causes, the business reality is that there will be more frequent extreme events and resource pressures in key regions. In turn, these will create operational and supply-chain exposure that makes it hard to diversify quickly.

The above graph shows the number of events for themes related to "Physical Environment Stressors," generated in our AI platform, PolecatX. The color indicates whether the sentiment is positive (blue) or concerning (orange).

While environmental technology is being seen in a more positive light (though green energy has its risks too), natural disasters and environmental health are each driven by mainly negative media.

Geopolitical fragmentation remains the operating backdrop

Even where tensions cool temporarily, the direction of travel is still toward a more bifurcated rules environment, with knock-on effects for investment, compliance, and market access.

Overall

The biggest movers this month weren’t “single-country risks.” They were cross-border constraint risks — trade rules, strategic inputs, platform dependencies, environmental stress, and systemic disruption that propagate quickly through supply chains and labor markets.