Stock Price and Sentiment: Is Reputation Fundamental?

Every shift in a share price is shaped by fundamentals - size, value, growth, momentum. We suggest that reputation is just as important. How does the world perceive the company? Its leadership, innovation, risks, and reputation?

Polecat allows users to toggle stock price data alongside sentiment trends for any publicly listed entity. The result is a clearer, richer understanding of how stakeholder perception connects to market value.

Does sentiment move the needle?

Traditional analysis of equity performance often centres on financial statements, analyst guidance, and macro conditions. Yet reputational signals such as media narratives, social conversations and regulatory debates, can foreshadow market moves. Could they be “early warning lights” of emerging risk or opportunity?

By visualising sentiment and share price on a single chart, Polecat makes it possible to explore where perception shifts may precede market impacts. We don't claim to predict the market, but it does provide context that investors, communicators, and risk leaders can’t afford to ignore.

A Real-World Example: Nvidia

*past performance is not indicative of future results

Take Nvidia, a cornerstone for the AI economy. In recent quarters, its valuation has been fuelled not just by earnings, but by public and political narratives about AI’s promise and risk. Polecat analysis revealed a surge in negative sentiment following a spate of stories around AI regulation and global competition.

Shortly afterwards, Nvidia’s stock experienced heightened volatility. The sequence illustrates a familiar pattern: sentiment changes often register before share prices adjust. Investors digest headlines, regulators raise questions, and public debate sets the tone for market confidence.

By toggling stock price against sentiment, users can see this play out; turning what might look like sudden market shocks into more intelligible, contextualised shifts.

Untangling Causation

The relationship between sentiment and stock price is not a one-way street. News and public perception can influence how a company is valued, but equally, a sudden change in share price can generate coverage, commentary, and speculation that drive sentiment.

We're not saying that the Polecat sentiment score can predict share price movement - however, what is interesting, is how often the sentiment signal comes first. We often see shifts in tone across news, social, and expert commentary occur before the market reacts. Negative headlines about governance, regulation, or product risk may begin to circulate, pulling down sentiment while the share price remains steady, until investors catch up. Conversely, positive narratives around innovation or strategic partnerships often spark momentum before earnings announcements move the market.

By visualising both curves together, Polecat helps reveal this dynamic. The causality may run both ways, but the lag between perception shifts and price response is precisely where opportunity lies—for risk managers to prepare, for communicators to act, and for investors to reassess exposure before volatility sets in

PolecatX output for Caterpillar with share price overlayed. Users can ask follow up questions relating to the sentiment events, as well as share price movements.

Responsible Business Intelligence® for Market Resilience

Polecat doesn’t offer investment advice, nor does it model future stock performance. What it provides is a new dimension of visibility: a way to connect reputational dynamics with financial outcomes. In doing so, it helps investors, communicators, and executives alike to make better-informed, forward-looking decisions.